[SMM Weekly Review] Second-Life Application Prices Stabilize, Focus on Stockpiling and Costs (2025.12.29-2025.12.31)

SMM December 31:

Second-Life Application Market This Week:

This week, second-life application market prices stabilized, with previous upward momentum fading and the supply-demand tug-of-war reaching an equilibrium. Cost side support was significant, as spot prices for three key raw materials—nickel, cobalt, and lithium chemicals—rose simultaneously, providing strong bottom support for second-life product prices and curbing downside risks. Supply side showed a volume release characteristic; approaching year-end, most battery cell manufacturers, driven by factors such as capital recovery and annual performance assessments, increased shipments of Grade A and B second-life battery cells, boosting market circulation and alleviating previous localized tight supply. Demand side exhibited clear divergence: some downstream enterprises initiated year-end stockpiling purchases, supporting market demand, while others, cautious due to financial conditions and price assessments, showed low acceptance of current prices, adopting a wait-and-see attitude and postponing procurement. Reviewing the full year 2025, demand in the second-life application market remained generally stable, with only the ESS sector showing significant growth; increased installations in ESS projects became the core driver of annual demand growth. Combined factors—cost side support, supply side volume release, demand side divergence, and stable full-year demand—resulted in current Grade B second-life battery cell prices maintaining a steady trend.

Looking ahead, from a short-term fundamental perspective, second-life application demand is likely to remain stable. Demand in traditional downstream application sectors has normalized, with no large-scale incremental room; although ESS sector demand is growing, a explosive surge is unlikely in the short term, unable to disruptively boost overall demand. Against this backdrop, market price upside room is limited, with wild swings unlikely in the short term, and prices are expected to maintain a sideways movement. Meanwhile, cost-side transmission exhibits lag; the impact of current raw material price increases has not fully passed through to the terminal second-life application segment, and subsequent cost pressure may gradually transmit upward. As the Chinese New Year approaches, if most downstream enterprises collectively initiate year-end stockpiling, it will boost market demand and, combined with cost side support, is expected to push Grade B second-life battery cell prices to rise slightly in the short term. Subsequent trends will still require close attention to two key variables: the progress of cost transmission and the intensity of stockpiling demand release.

SMM New Energy Research Team

Wang Cong, 021-51666838

Ma Rui, 021-51595780

Feng Disheng, 021-51666714

Lu Yanlin, 021-20707875

Lei Yue, 021-20707873